If you are reading this article, then there are high chances you are a blockchain enthusiast and that you were directly or indirectly impacted by the decline of cryptocurrencies. You probably also believe that 2019 will be very fruitful for the blockchain industry.
Most of the people believe that when Blockchain impacts our daily life, bring the privacy of data to the mainstream, and reach the targets of this revolution such us banking the unbanked things will go really quickly and it will be maybe late for those who still resist.
How the progress is going and when we will reach those purposes?
The problem is that things are going slower than it looks like, in fact, a study found that 41% of board members believe that they are leading their industry in adopting new technologies, in comparison to just 14% of department heads. In a survey done by Tata Communication.
Adopting will happen when the number of department heads will increase to 100.
How innovation got adopted in history
Let’s dig deeper and compare the blockchain technology To other human experiences.
Diffusion of Innovation Theory, first postulated by Everett Rogers in 1962, explains how innovation takes root in society through different segments of a population. It starts slowly at first with the “innovators” and “early adopters,” who innovate, take the risks, and change the status quo. Then an “early majority” who are people who jump in and help to spread the innovation. “Late majority” and “Laggards” and you know the story.
This model of adoption has occurred throughout history, from the iPhone to the abolishment of slavery.
The question now is where do we stand now and how close are we from the mainstream adoption.
Many think that we are already in the early majority and Blockchain technology will be in the mass adoption soon.
For the blockchain adoption, we need to discuss two levels of adoptions, Investment, and technology. And just to show to you how much the difference is big, you can take a look into this Screenshot That I made when writing this article about google trend worldwide in 2018 for Blockchain and bitcoin.
The red line is the bitcoin trend during 2018 and the blue one is for Blockchain trend in 2018.
As we can see, the difference between the trends is huge, the bitcoin’s trend is obviously decreasing meanwhile Blockchain’s trend is stable. We can conclude that From a financial perspective it’s possible that we are in the Early Majority. Both institutional and peers are involved in cryptocurrencies and the market has seen a big boom by end of 2017, early 2018.
From a technological side, we are still far from the mass adoption and I think that we still in early adopters phase, the early majority did not jump in yet and we will see maybe in 2019 an important increasing and this is for many reasons, the limit of the technology itself, I mean scaling, the networks today can’t stand high volumes of transactions and this is a big barrier particularly institutions. The other reason is that Blockchain developers are more and more available in the market but experienced ones are rare and scattered between many crypto-projects. Also the lack of a legal framework that would allow a mass adoption.
The gap is really big here between technology and investments and this means an overvaluation of cryptocurrencies.
The good news is that the adoption of the technology is still far from the mass adoption and the hype about the financial part was huge, what will happen when Blockchain technology will solve real problems and impact our daily life.
I believe that 2019 will bring many decentralized applications, the exciting ones will improve their products and this will definitely bring very good vibes to the financial aspect of the Blockchain.
Dear reader, be optimistic about 2019 but not too much.